Aureva Capital - Weekly Newsletter - 4th Oct 2026
Read Aureva Capital's weekly market memo for October 4, 2026. We analyze Nifty's historic eight-week losing streak, FII outflows, sectoral performance, and macro headwinds ahead of the RBI policy.
MARKET UPDATE
Week ended 01 October 2026
Nifty extends its losing run to eight straight weeks — the longest in nearly 25 years — as FII selling, US yields above 5% and a weak monsoon weigh ahead of the RBI policy
Here is your weekly market update — a snapshot of where major indices and commodities stand, followed by the key developments across commodities and currencies, Indian and global markets, and the week ahead.
MARKET AT A GLANCE
Indices Performance
| Index | 25-Sep | 01-Oct | 1W |
| BROAD MARKET | |||
| Nifty 50 | 23,140.5 | 22,422.0 | −3.1% |
| Sensex | 73,895.7 | 71,909.7 | −2.7% |
| BSE Midcap | 16,574.6 | 15,997.6 | −3.5% |
| BSE Smallcap | 7,145.9 | 6,909.4 | −3.3% |
| SECTORAL INDICES (BSE) | |||
| BSE IT | 27,143.7 | 27,198.8 | +0.2% |
| BSE Bankex | 62,833.1 | 61,356.1 | −2.4% |
| BSE Capital Goods | 75,958.8 | 74,133.3 | −2.4% |
| BSE Power | 7,337.0 | 7,145.0 | −2.6% |
| BSE Realty | 6,776.7 | 6,554.3 | −3.3% |
| BSE Healthcare | 51,596.1 | 49,899.9 | −3.3% |
| BSE Oil & Gas | 25,510.6 | 24,621.7 | −3.5% |
| BSE PSU | 20,027.7 | 19,298.0 | −3.6% |
| BSE Metal | 41,357.8 | 39,634.3 | −4.2% |
| BSE FMCG | 17,375.4 | 16,651.3 | −4.2% |
| BSE Consumer Durables | 61,053.0 | 57,809.5 | −5.3% |
| BSE Auto | 59,648.4 | 56,364.1 | −5.5% |
3M/6M/12M returns for domestic indices were not available for this edition; only the 1-week change is shown above.
The week in brief: Indian equities fell for an eighth consecutive week, the longest weekly losing streak in nearly 25 years. The Nifty 50 and Sensex declined 3.1% and 2.7% respectively, while broader markets underperformed, with mid- and small-caps down 3.5% and 3.3%. BSE IT (+0.2%) was the only sectoral gainer, while Auto (−5.5%), Consumer Durables (−5.3%), FMCG and Metals (−4.2% each) were the biggest laggards. Sentiment was weighed down by unresolved West Asia tensions keeping crude above US$100/bbl, the US 10-year yield near 5.3%, a 13% monsoon rainfall deficit (the weakest since 2015) and caution ahead of the RBI policy on 7 October. FIIs were net sellers of ₹29,424 crore in the cash market over the week, partly offset by ₹23,414 crore of DII buying (to 30 September). Technically, 22,100–22,150 is the key support for the Nifty, with 22,550–22,600 as the immediate hurdle.
Global Market Update
| Index | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M |
| DJIA (USA) | −1.8% | −3.5% | −3.8% | +9.5% | +9.6% |
| Nasdaq (USA) | −0.8% | +2.9% | +4.0% | +22.8% | +18.0% |
| S&P 500 (USA) | −1.2% | +0.3% | +2.2% | +16.2% | +14.0% |
| Russell 2000 (USA) | −1.4% | −4.2% | −6.7% | +10.5% | +14.5% |
| DAX (Germany) | −0.8% | −3.0% | −2.3% | +8.8% | +4.5% |
| CAC 40 (France) | −1.4% | −4.1% | −6.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | −0.8% | −1.7% | −0.7% | +1.6% | +12.3% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | −0.6% | −1.9% | −2.7% | +6.4% | +12.4% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | +3.9% | +4.1% | −1.1% | +29.8% | +54.8% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | +0.4% | −2.8% | +5.4% | −2.0% | −8.3% |
| Shanghai Composite (China) | −1.2% | −3.5% | −5.0% | −1.0% | −1.0% |
| KOSPI (Korea) | −1.5% | +2.0% | −13.8% | +29.6% | +101.7% |
| Straits Times (Singapore) | −0.8% | −0.7% | +8.1% | +14.6% | +31.1% |
| SET (Thailand) | −2.7% | −1.6% | −2.9% | +7.6% | +22.7% |
| S&P/ASX 100 (Australia) | −0.5% | −5.0% | −2.5% | +0.6% | −1.8% |
| Bovespa 50 (Brazil) | +1.6% | +3.7% | +7.0% | −0.9% | +28.1% |
US and European indices and Bovespa as of 30 September 2026.
Japan’s Nikkei (+3.9%) and Brazil’s Bovespa (+1.6%) led a largely negative week for global equities, while Thailand’s SET (−2.7%) and the Dow Jones (−1.8%) were among the weakest. Over 12 months, Korea’s KOSPI (+101.7%) and Japan’s Nikkei (+54.8%) remain the standout performers, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (−8.3%) lags.
Global Commodity Update
| Commodity | Last | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M |
| Brent Crude ($/bbl) | 103.5 | −0.8% | +9.4% | +43.6% | −5.0% | +58.4% |
| Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) | 3.0 | −6.6% | +5.3% | −10.4% | +4.4% | −6.5% |
| Coal – Newcastle ($/Ton) | 146.5 | +1.9% | −0.8% | +12.6% | +2.3% | +23.5% |
| Copper LME ($/Ton) | 14,453.0 | −1.9% | +0.3% | +8.5% | +17.6% | +39.8% |
| Aluminium LME ($/Ton) | 3,159.3 | −3.0% | −3.7% | +2.5% | −10.7% | +17.6% |
| Zinc LME ($/Ton) | 3,915.3 | −2.0% | −3.6% | +10.0% | +20.0% | +28.0% |
| Nickel LME ($/Ton) | 15,738.0 | −2.6% | −4.6% | −3.0% | −6.9% | +5.0% |
| Gold ($/Troy Oz) | 4,157.4 | −3.0% | −4.0% | −0.5% | −11.1% | +7.5% |
| Silver ($/Troy Oz) | 60.4 | −6.0% | −5.7% | −3.2% | −17.2% | +27.7% |
| Raw Sugar ($/lb) | 17.6 | +0.7% | −4.0% | +18.7% | +17.5% | +9.3% |
| Cotton ($/lb) | 78.5 | −5.1% | −14.2% | +1.8% | +4.7% | +13.9% |
| Rubber (JPY/kg) | 445.0 | −1.8% | −3.4% | +10.9% | +17.5% | +46.6% |
| Coffee Robusta ($/lb) | 3,445.0 | +2.3% | +0.4% | −11.7% | −0.1% | −21.8% |
| Palm Oil Malaysia ($/Ton) | 1,145.0 | −0.9% | −6.1% | +0.4% | −3.6% | +6.3% |
| Baltic Dry Index (pts) | 3,113.0 | −9.1% | −1.4% | +14.6% | +50.7% | +57.2% |
Prices as of 30 September 2026.
Precious metals came under pressure, with silver down 6.0% and gold 3.0% for the week, while the Baltic Dry Index slid 9.1%. Despite a marginal weekly dip, Brent crude remains 43.6% higher over three months.
COMMODITIES & FX
Gold, crude and copper eased as Fed-hike bets shifted. Gold was headed for a weekly decline of about 2.7%, even as softer US inflation trimmed expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike. Easing inflation should lend gold some near-term support, but a firmer dollar, elevated oil prices and a sticky inflation outlook could cap gains if rate-hike bets resurface. Brent retreated through the week to around $100.7/bbl from $104.3/bbl, giving back part of a 14% gain in September; supply worries and stalled peace talks offered support, but a recovery in Middle East exports weighed. OPEC+ is expected to leave November output targets unchanged, while US–Israel–Iran tensions could keep prices volatile. Copper was set for a ~2% weekly loss on softer Chinese demand and oil above $100/bbl, though falling Shanghai and LME inventories, Chilean strike risks and backwardation point to a still-tight physical market.
Rupee hovers near ₹96/$ as the dollar firms on higher Treasury yields. The US dollar index was on track for a ~0.6% weekly gain, supported by higher Treasury yields even as softer PCE inflation reduced the odds of an October Fed hike. The dollar is likely to remain sensitive to upcoming inflation and labour-market data; continued moderation in inflation could limit further hike bets and cap its upside. The Indian rupee ended the week near ₹96.3/$, pressured by elevated crude prices and US yields. The ₹96/$ level remains key, with RBI intervention likely to contain volatility — the central bank’s net short forward dollar position has climbed to a record of about $200 billion, backed by rising FX reserves.
INDIAN COMPANIES UPDATE
01 Tata Sons: Tata Trusts announced a strategic reorganisation plan proposing a return to its earlier operating model through an amalgamation, allowing Tata Sons to remain a privately held company.
02 ITC: acquired the remaining stake in Sproutlife Foods for about ₹645 crore, taking its holding to 100% from 47.5%.
03 Prestige Estates Projects: signed an agreement under which CPP Investments will invest ₹3,000 crore in Prestige Hospitality Ventures in three tranches.
04 Tata Steel: won its FY09 tax case on interest deduction, cutting the tax liability by ₹427 crore to ₹1,259 crore; it also acquired 393 crore shares of subsidiary TSHP for ₹3,260 crore.
05 Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC): signed a ₹4,200 crore term loan with Damodar Valley Corporation to fund renewable projects in Jharkhand and West Bengal; separately received a ₹396.91 crore GST show-cause notice from Bihar tax authorities for FY23.
06 Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions: raised ₹2,500 crore through green NCDs on a private placement basis, while investor Augment India sold a 7.25% stake via a block deal worth about ₹1,062.8 crore.
07 NMDC: commissioned its 2 MTPA pellet plant at Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, part of a ₹5,427 crore integrated iron-ore processing and pipeline project.
08 Adani Ports and SEZ: the $750 million Phase II expansion of its Colombo West International Terminal in Sri Lanka was inaugurated.
09 NCC: won a ₹1,076.71 crore water-supply order from the Andhra Pradesh government, plus two further orders worth ₹500.22 crore during September.
10 Power Mech Projects: secured a ₹549 crore, 60-month order from Adani Group’s Moxie Power and a ₹279 crore order from a Telangana power utility.
11 Zydus Lifesciences: US FDA inspection of its New Jersey pharmacovigilance systems concluded with nil observations, while its Ahmedabad facility inspection ended with one observation.
12 Tech Mahindra: board will meet on October 15 to consider an interim dividend for FY27 and a bonus issue, alongside Q2 results.
13 Infosys: extended its strategic partnership with Dutch lender ABN AMRO to scale the use of AI across the bank’s business.
14 Blue Dart Express: will raise prices across its domestic portfolio by 9%–12% from January 1, 2027, depending on product and customer profile.
15 Graphite India: the US Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti-dumping margin of 12.22%; the financial impact is not yet ascertainable.
GLOBAL UPDATE
Global bond selloff deepens as the US 10-year yield hits 5.34%.
Government borrowing costs across the US, Europe and Japan climbed to multi-decade highs. The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002, after rising almost 90 bps in the third quarter — the biggest quarterly jump this century. French 10-year yields also hit 2002 highs, UK 30-year gilts reached 6% for the first time since 1998, and Japanese yields sit at multi-decade peaks. Higher oil prices on US–Iran tensions have revived inflation and rate-hike fears, while heavy government borrowing (US debt now exceeds $40 trillion) and a surge in AI-related bond issuance — the five largest hyperscalers have raised about $220 billion this year, more than double last year’s total — add supply pressure. US Treasury buybacks have so far failed to calm longer-dated bonds, and investors argue that durable relief will require lower debt or stronger growth.
Brokerages push the expected next Fed hike to December.
Most global brokerages now expect the Fed to deliver one more 25 bp hike this year, but in December rather than October, after August PCE inflation came in at 3.4% year-on-year versus the 3.7% expected. Goldman Sachs moved its call from October to December, joining J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, HSBC and others who see the fed funds rate ending 2026 at 4.00%–4.25%. BofA still expects two hikes (October and December) to 4.25%–4.50%, while Citi sees no further change. Futures now price roughly a 38% chance of an October hike, down from about 71% a week earlier; the Fed next meets on October 27–28 after hiking in September.
Bank of England flags rising stability risks from the oil shock and AI debt.
The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee said the likelihood of interconnected weaknesses in the financial system materialising has increased, citing the re-escalation of the Iran conflict, which has lifted energy prices into a more protracted supply shock and pushed bond yields to levels last seen in 2008. It also highlighted the rapid rise in AI-related debt issuance — estimated at about $450 billion globally this year, double 2025 — which raises capital markets’ exposure to any AI setback. The countercyclical capital buffer was held at 2%. Governor Andrew Bailey called for rigorous pre- and post-deployment testing of frontier AI models ahead of formal regulation, and the BoE will publish detailed proposals on bank leverage rules and gilt repo reforms in early 2027.
China’s services sector grows at its fastest pace in three months.
China’s RatingDog General Services PMI rose to 51.6 in September from 51.4 in August, as new orders — including from overseas — grew at the quickest pace since June. Firms added staff for a fifth straight month, though hiring slowed to a four-month low. Input-cost inflation eased, while output prices fell for the first time in four months and at the sharpest rate since April 2022, pointing to continued pricing pressure. Business confidence improved, and the composite PMI edged up to 52.4 from 52.1.
Citi lifts bitcoin and ether targets on renewed crypto momentum.
Citigroup raised its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 and its ether target to $3,028 from $2,240, citing stronger crypto activity, a supportive macro backdrop and the return of ETF inflows, which it expects to total about $5 billion over the next year as advisers gradually raise allocations. While the US Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act set back a market-structure framework, subsequent SEC rule announcements eased sentiment. Bitcoin and ether have rallied roughly 40% and 68% over the past three months, narrowing year-to-date losses to about 4% and 9% respectively.
QUARTERLY RESULTS FOR NEXT WEEK
The Q2 FY27 earnings season kicks off next week, with IT major TCS scheduled to announce its results on 8 October. Ahead of that, banks, NBFCs, realty and retail companies will begin releasing provisional Q2 FY27 business updates. Accenture’s stronger-than-expected Q4 FY26 earnings have improved sentiment toward Indian IT, keeping the sector firmly in focus.
| Date | Company | Event |
| 08-Oct | Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) | Q2 FY27 results |
| Through the week | Banks, NBFCs, Realty & Retail | Provisional Q2 FY27 business updates |
ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR NEXT WEEK
| Date | Region | Event | Previous | Forecast |
| 05-Oct | EU | HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Sep) | 52.0 | 53.1 |
| 05-Oct | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) | 52.5 | 51.7 |
| 05-Oct | USA | S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) | 56.0 | 58.4 |
| 06-Oct | India | S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) | 54.1 | 55.8 |
| 06-Oct | UK | S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep) | 44.3 | — |
| 06-Oct | USA | ADP Employment Change (Weekly) | 20.00K | — |
| 06-Oct | USA | Trade Balance (Aug) | -88.60B | — |
| 07-Oct | India | RBI Interest Rate Decision | 5.3% | — |
| 07-Oct | USA | 10-Year Note Auction | 4.8% | — |
| 08-Oct | USA | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.31% | — |
| 09-Oct | Japan | Household Spending (YoY, Aug) | -3.6% | — |
For information and education only; not investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Mutual fund and securities investments are subject to market risks; past performance does not guarantee future results.
Aureva Capital Private Limited is an AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor & SIF Distributor (ARN - 346247), APMI Registered PMS Distributor (APRN07979), and also a Distributor of AIF & GIFT City products.