Aureva Capital - Weekly Newsletter - 18th Oct 2026
Explore Aureva Capital's weekly market update for October 18, 2026. Discover how Indian equities snapped an 8-week losing streak driven by a massive IT surge and cooler bond yields.
AUREVA CAPITAL
Weekly Market Update
Week ended 16 October 2026
Indian markets snap an eight-week losing streak as IT surges nearly 11% and bond yields cool, while Jio Platforms’ record IPO opens next week
Here is your weekly market update — a snapshot of where major indices, commodities and currencies stand, followed by the key developments across Indian and global companies, upcoming results and the week ahead.
MARKET AT A GLANCE — INDICES PERFORMANCE
INDEX 09-OCT 16-OCT 1W CHANGE
BROAD MARKET
| Nifty 50 | 22,520.5 | 23,146.2 | +2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensex | 72,472.3 | 74,729.3 | +3.1% |
| BSE Midcap 150 | 15,919.2 | 16,009.0 | +0.6% |
| BSE Smallcap 250 | 6,883.2 | 6,915.8 | +0.5% |
SECTORAL INDICES (BSE)
| BSE IT | 27,406.6 | 30,396.1 | +10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSE Auto | 55,145.9 | 57,027.5 | +3.4% |
| BSE Realty | 6,279.8 | 6,454.2 | +2.8% |
| BSE Oil & Gas | 24,157.9 | 24,668.7 | +2.1% |
| BSE Metal | 37,979.3 | 38,681.6 | +1.8% |
| BSE PSU | 19,154.0 | 19,403.7 | +1.3% |
| BSE Power | 6,986.3 | 7,060.0 | +1.1% |
| BSE Bankex | 62,159.2 | 62,769.4 | +1.0% |
| BSE Consumer Durables | 57,153.3 | 57,505.2 | +0.6% |
| BSE Capital Goods | 73,291.7 | 73,532.2 | +0.3% |
| BSE FMCG | 17,056.4 | 17,010.0 | −0.3% |
| BSE Healthcare | 48,828.0 | 48,268.0 | −1.1% |
3M/6M/12M returns for domestic indices were not available in this week’s data; the 1-week change is shown above.
Indian equities recovered strongly in the second half of the week after early weakness, as softer crude prices, a pull-back in US Treasury yields to about 5.08% and a weaker dollar revived risk appetite. The rally was concentrated in large-cap IT — Tech Mahindra (+18.2%), TCS (+14.3%), Infosys (+13.5%) and HCL Technologies (+13.4%) led the Nifty — while Nestlé India (−5.1%), Max Healthcare (−4.3%) and InterGlobe Aviation (−3.0%) lagged. Broader markets trailed, with only 257 of the NSE 500 stocks ending the week higher. FIIs were net sellers of ₹9,511 crore, while DIIs bought ₹11,474 crore. Technically, 22,750–22,800 is the key support for the Nifty, with resistance at 23,400–23,440 and a breakout potentially opening the way to 23,650.
GLOBAL MARKET UPDATE
| INDEX | LAST | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA (USA) | 52,177.7 | +1.0% | +1.4% | +0.1% | +5.5% | +13.5% |
| Nasdaq (USA) | 26,713.0 | −2.4% | +2.8% | +4.7% | +9.2% | +18.4% |
| S&P 500 (USA) | 7,744.1 | −0.9% | +2.5% | +3.8% | +8.7% | +16.8% |
| Russell 2000 (USA) | 2,767.3 | −1.4% | −3.2% | −6.6% | −0.3% | +12.2% |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,382.6 | +1.2% | −0.6% | +2.2% | +2.8% | +4.6% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,934.7 | +1.7% | −2.5% | −4.8% | −5.8% | −3.1% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,840.4 | +2.7% | +1.4% | +2.3% | +1.6% | +14.9% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 640.2 | +1.4% | +0.5% | −0.2% | +2.2% | +12.0% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 65,324.3 | −5.4% | +2.2% | +1.8% | +11.7% | +35.3% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 24,186.8 | −0.1% | −2.1% | −1.5% | −7.5% | −6.6% |
| Shanghai Comp. (China) | 3,716.3 | −2.6% | −4.5% | −1.3% | −8.3% | −5.1% |
| KOSPI (Korea) | 5,668.1 | −14.5% | −15.6% | −16.9% | −8.5% | +51.2% |
| Straits Times (Singapore) | 5,415.5 | +0.3% | −3.9% | −1.7% | +8.4% | +24.3% |
| SET (Thailand) | 1,573.0 | −0.3% | +0.7% | −4.0% | +6.1% | +21.8% |
| S&P/ASX 100 (Australia) | 7,425.7 | +1.3% | +1.8% | +0.3% | −0.8% | −1.6% |
| Bovespa 50 (Brazil) | 204,324.3 | −2.3% | +10.1% | +17.6% | +4.4% | +43.7% |
Data as of 15 October 2026.
Europe led weekly gains, with the FTSE 100 up 2.7% and the CAC 40 up 1.7%, while Asia lagged as AI-linked technology stocks sold off — Korea’s KOSPI fell 14.5% and Japan’s Nikkei 5.4%. In the US, the Dow edged up 1.0% but the Nasdaq slipped 2.4%. Over 12 months, the KOSPI (+51.2%), Bovespa (+43.7%) and Nikkei (+35.3%) remain the standout performers.
GLOBAL COMMODITY UPDATE
| COMMODITY | LAST | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude ($/bbl) | 105.9 | +1.1% | +0.1% | +20.2% | +17.2% | +73.5% |
| Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) | 3.3 | +19.1% | +9.0% | +18.7% | +21.7% | +15.8% |
| Coal – Newcastle ($/Ton) | 155.9 | +2.4% | +3.4% | +13.7% | +22.3% | +29.3% |
| Copper LME ($/Ton) | 14,421.1 | −1.7% | +1.5% | +6.8% | +8.6% | +35.6% |
| Aluminium LME ($/Ton) | 2,987.1 | −1.5% | −9.1% | −5.4% | −16.8% | +6.5% |
| Zinc LME ($/Ton) | 3,692.3 | −4.7% | −5.3% | +4.2% | +7.2% | +18.7% |
| Nickel LME ($/Ton) | 15,019.2 | −2.7% | −6.1% | −10.4% | −16.1% | −0.3% |
| Gold ($/Troy Oz) | 4,171.4 | −0.5% | −2.2% | +3.8% | −13.6% | −3.6% |
| Silver ($/Troy Oz) | 57.4 | −5.6% | −8.9% | +2.7% | −29.0% | +5.8% |
| Raw Sugar ($/lb) | 21.1 | +4.3% | +17.6% | +42.5% | +58.8% | +33.7% |
| Cotton ($/lb) | 80.1 | −0.6% | −5.1% | +1.8% | −0.5% | +18.3% |
| Rubber (JPY/kg) | 470.0 | +5.1% | −8.5% | +10.4% | +25.3% | +53.6% |
| Coffee Robusta ($/lb) | 3,375.0 | −2.7% | −0.7% | −15.1% | −0.4% | −26.9% |
| Palm Oil Malaysia ($/Ton) | 1,145.0 | −0.9% | −4.2% | −0.4% | −2.1% | +5.0% |
| Baltic Dry Index (pts) | 2,545.0 | −12.8% | −23.5% | −7.5% | −0.9% | +24.4% |
Data as of 15 October 2026.
COMMODITIES & FX
COMMODITIES
Crude holds its war premium; gold and copper ease on hawkish Fed bets. Gold headed for a marginal weekly loss as hotter September inflation, producer-price and retail-sales data revived inflation worries, although prices steadied after Kevin Warsh’s remarks trimmed October rate-hike bets; a firm dollar and sticky inflation could weigh on the metal. Brent edged up 0.44% for the week and WTI 5.81%, supported by a larger-than-expected US crude inventory draw and attacks on shipping that kept a risk premium on Strait of Hormuz flows, partly offset by the IEA’s release of over 20 million barrels of diesel and emergency stocks — prices are likely to stay volatile. Copper was set for a 1.7% weekly decline on profit-taking, weaker AI stocks and rate-hike bets; tighter policy may keep it under pressure, though mine disruptions could limit losses.
CURRENCIES
Rupee gains 1.8% on RBI action as the dollar eases from an 18-month high. The US Dollar Index slipped for the week after touching an 18-month high of 102.86 on hot inflation and hawkish Fed expectations. October hike odds remain low, but markets are pricing a high probability of a December hike, which, alongside elevated yields, should keep the dollar supported. The rupee strengthened 1.78% to ₹95/$ as RBI measures curbed dollar demand. However, the curbs have pushed forward premiums to multi-year highs, and nearly half of the over $140 billion mobilised earlier has reportedly been used; elevated oil prices and thinning buffers could keep the rupee volatile.
INDIAN COMPANIES UPDATE
- Jio Platforms (Reliance Industries): India’s largest-ever IPO, worth ₹30,187.6 crore, opens on 21 October and closes on 23 October at a price band of ₹1,065–1,119; the issue is an entirely fresh issue of 27 crore shares.
- IDBI Bank: A Fairfax Financial Holdings-backed entity has been approved as the strategic buyer, with the government and LIC divesting a combined 60.72% stake for ₹52,878 crore. The RBI will allow Fairfax to reduce its holding to 26% over 15 years.
- HCLTech: Signed a global premier partnership with Anthropic to scale agentic AI across enterprises, and will set up a dedicated Anthropic Business Unit and a Centre of Excellence for Claude.
- YES Bank: Shares fell 14.43% after the Supreme Court overturned its AT1 bond write-off; the bank is reviewing the ruling and will make the necessary disclosures.
- Hyundai Motor India: Inaugurated its Talegaon (Pune) manufacturing facility, where it plans to invest ₹11,000 crore in phases.
- Adani Enterprises: Signed a non-binding MoU with Jabil Inc. for a proposed 50:50 joint venture to manufacture AI and data-centre equipment in India.
- Mankind Pharma: To acquire a 70% stake in Belgium-based Armed Cell Therapeutics for €48 million (₹511 crore), marking its entry into next-generation CAR-T cancer therapies.
- Tata Motors: Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles signed a definitive technology agreement with Stellantis to provide vehicle architecture; separately, TML CV Holdings BV raised its offer price to €14.4 per share from €14.1.
- Bank of Baroda: NMC Health founder BR Shetty is seeking $15 billion in damages from the bank and 25 other defendants, alleging they helped facilitate fraud involving group companies.
- Dr Reddy’s Laboratories: The USFDA completed a pre-approval inspection at its FTO-9 facility in Visakhapatnam and issued a Form 483 with three observations.
- Zydus Lifesciences: A USFDA inspection of its Moraiya (Ahmedabad) facility from 5–13 October concluded with five observations.
- Canara Bank & Indian Bank: Reported a combined corporate loan pipeline of ₹1.10 lakh crore; Canara Bank expects about 19% credit growth and Indian Bank targets 14–15%.
- KEC International: Secured new T&D orders worth ₹1,014 crore in India, including a 765 kV transmission line in western India.
- IRCON International: Received an EPC order worth ₹862 crore from East Central Railway.
- Polycab India: The NCLAT stayed the NCLT Ahmedabad order initiating insolvency proceedings against the company over an alleged operational debt of ₹2.79 crore.
GLOBAL UPDATE
Central bankers see a higher cost of money as the AI boom fuels a scramble for capital. Central bankers from the world’s largest economies, meeting in Bangkok, warned that the AI investment boom is setting off a global race for capital and creating fresh inflation and financial risks, because the spending is arriving well before AI’s promised productivity gains. Policymakers believe the neutral interest rate is rising, which means current rates are less restrictive than previously thought. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates on 5 November, while the ECB and the Fed, which both hiked in September, are priced for another move in December. Structurally higher borrowing costs pose a challenge for governments that built up large debts in the near-zero rate era.
IMF urges global cooperation on AI and war risks; Washington pushes back. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called for urgent and practical international cooperation in the face of rapid AI advances and the prolonged Middle East war, noting that US, German and Japanese 10-year bond yields have hit their highest levels in decades. The IMF nudged its 2026 global growth forecast up to 3.1% from 3.0% as AI investment offset the oil shock, but warned that a steep drop in AI spending could cut global GDP by 1.1% by 2028. US Treasury Under Secretary Erin Browne countered that the Fund needs a more balanced view, pointing to record US stock prices and strong US growth.
Market selloff and rising rates test the AI data-centre deal boom. A market selloff is forcing companies driving the AI build-out to delay fundraising or pay more for capital, as investors seek proof they can absorb higher interest rates and computing costs. In the past week, listings for a Blackstone-backed AirTrunk REIT, Nvidia-backed Firmus and SoftBank-backed SB Energy have been pulled or paused, while data-centre operator CoreWeave’s debt slid towards distressed levels. Industry advisers warn higher financing costs could trigger sharp valuation corrections, although a strong pipeline may sustain deal activity — AirTrunk is reportedly nearing a sale of its Johor data centre at a valuation of about $2 billion.
European majors on track for strong Q3 earnings, but consumer cyclicals are downgraded. STOXX 600 companies are expected to report third-quarter earnings growth of 20.7%, slightly below last week’s 21% estimate, led by energy companies benefiting from Iran-war supply disruptions and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries; revenue growth estimates rose to 11.0% from 10.6%. Consumer cyclicals are now expected to post a 2.6% fall in earnings versus 26% growth forecast a week earlier, after weak Q3 deliveries at Volkswagen and BMW on slumping Chinese demand. Upgrades to energy and technology offset most of the cut.
QUARTERLY RESULTS FOR NEXT WEEK
The Q2 FY27 earnings season gathers pace. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank — together about 22.8% of the Nifty and 42.85% of the Bank Nifty — report on Saturday, 17 October, and more than 150 companies are scheduled to announce results next week.
| DATE | COMPANIES |
|---|---|
| 17-Oct | HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank |
| 19-Oct | Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Zinc, Piramal Finance, UltraTech Cement |
| 21-Oct | Adani Green Energy, Indian Hotels, KEI Industries |
| 22-Oct | Adani Total Gas, Adani Energy Solutions, Colgate Palmolive (India), HPCL, Havells India |
| 23-Oct | Adani Power, BPCL, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, Shree Cement |
ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR NEXT WEEK
| DATE | REGION | EVENT | PREVIOUS | FORECAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-Oct | China | GDP (YoY) (Q3) | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| 19-Oct | China | Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 5.3% | — |
| 20-Oct | UK | Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 4.9% | — |
| 20-Oct | USA | ADP Employment Change (Weekly) | 24.80K | — |
| 20-Oct | USA | Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | — |
| 21-Oct | USA | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -11.120M | — |
| 21-Oct | UK | CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 3.1% | — |
| 22-Oct | USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 199K | — |
| 22-Oct | USA | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,710K | — |
| 22-Oct | USA | Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) | -0.10% | — |
| 23-Oct | Japan | National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 1.70% | — |
| 23-Oct | India | S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) | 55.2 | — |
| 23-Oct | India | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 55.1 | — |
| 23-Oct | UK | Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) | 2.4% | — |
| 23-Oct | UK | Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) | 2.70% | — |
| 23-Oct | EU | HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Oct) | 53.1 | — |
| 23-Oct | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) | 52.0 | — |
| 23-Oct | USA | S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) | 58.4 | — |
For information and education only; not investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Mutual fund and securities investments are subject to market risks; past performance does not guarantee future results.